Sciences Academy Panel Sees Self-driving Trucks on Road in Five Years

January 10, 2017 by James R. Healey, @jimhealey99

Autonomous trucking is coming faster than expected – perhaps within five years, according to panelists at the Transportation Research Board’s 96th annual meeting in Washington, D.C. on Monday.

The TRB event, which is a division of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine, drew 13,000 engineers, planners and policy-makers to its five-day confab to discuss everything from asphalt paving to self-driving commercial trucks.

A marquee demonstration of a self-driving truck in Colorado last October provided a powerful argument that the rapidly-developing technology really works, two panelists emphasized.

“On Oct. 19, I was one of the biggest detractors of this technology,” said panelist Daniel Murray, vice president of research at the American Transportation Research Institute, or ATRI. “On Oct. 20, I drank the Kool-Aid.”

He became a believer when an autonomous truck operated by Uber subsidiary Otto delivered 51,744 cans of Budweiser beer 120 miles across Colorado – from Fort Collins to Colorado Springs – with no driver at the wheel, though one was in the cab.

“I moved my personal time line from 15-to-20 years up to five,” Murray said, referring to how soon he now believes self-driving trucks will be in commercial use.

The biggest issues are non-technology issues. Some state could say ‘We’re going to ban them’,” he told Trucks.com after the session.

“The U.S. DOT has just created and [appointed members to] a new advisory board on autonomous vehicles. That’ll dramatically speed things up. It’ll provide the expertise,” that regulators now lack, he told Trucks.com.

Mark Savage, deputy chief of the Colorado State Patrol, likewise was impressed with the beer delivery. He said that the self-driving Otto technology had quicker reaction times than he did.

The truck at one point sensed traffic ahead and slowed, so a car that was passing the truck would have room to decrease its speed and still pull in front of the truck.

“Before I saw the brake lights on the car, the [Otto] truck began to slow down,” he said. “The technology knew before I did.”

The beer run was made with a five-car state patrol escort – without flashing lights or sirens operating – between midnight to 3 a.m. when little other traffic was around.

Savage said Colorado law neither permits nor prohibits self-driving vehicles, so the state police decided it would be better to “be engaged with” the new technology than not.

He said the lesson he took from participating in the autonomous delivery was, “Manage and prepare for rapid pace of change, even if you don’t fully understand the technology. You might not fully understand the technology. And, I have to tell you, that’s OK. “

But the cost could be high, at least initially.

Panelist Chris Spear, of the American Trucking Associations, or ATA, said operators must see enough benefit to “pay $15,000 to $20,000” per truck for the autonomous technology. This includes the sensors and computers that keep the truck in its lane, yet let it steer around obstacles as needed, that brake it automatically and that drive it to fit into traffic flow.

An ATRI report last November – Identifying Autonomous Vehicle Technology Impacts on the Trucking Industry – predicted a cost of $23,400 per truck for fully-automated, or SAE Level 5, self-driving technology.

Fully-automated in this case references Level 5 under the Society of Automotive Engineers, or SAE, classification system of six different levels of vehicle autonomy based on the amount of necessary driver intervention.

The report cautioned that the real-world cost could be higher: “These costs are mainly related to software, and do not include inspection, maintenance or updates.”

Murray told Trucks.com, “I think it’ll be closer to $40,000 initially,” until autonomous driving systems are more widely produced and enjoy economies of scale.

Spear told Trucks.com that even at those rates, the improvement in safety, fuel economy and route efficiency should convince even smaller owner-operator outfits that autonomous trucking is a benefit.

Anthony Levandowski, chief executive of Uber-owned Otto, showed slides illustrating that 6.9 billion hours and 3.1 billion gallons of fuel are wasted per year, so the opportunities to save big are tempting.

And autonomous trucks can play a huge role in those savings, Levandowski said.

He said automated driving, in Uber’s view and his, “should be as practical as running water, available to everybody everywhere.”

Beyond the trucks, he said, Uber is working to streamline the process of brokering loads. His data show that it currently takes 20 phone calls and four person-hours to wrangle a load, a truck and a driver.

“Imagine if it took you 20 phone calls to get a cab,” he said.

The Uber system should be able to locate drivers and trucks that are empty or under-loaded and route them quickly to a pickup-up point. His data show that 15 percent to 25 percent of truck miles are driven empty, creating a sizable pool of drivers and companies looking for things to haul.

Panelist Sandra Larson, of the Iowa Department of Transportation, said there will be some public anxiety about “an 80,000-pound autonomous truck,” but that most public reaction she’s seen is “very positive.”

She said she was surprised to find during her research how many states already have self-driving projects and demonstrations underway.

The panel on Autonomous Trucks: Realities and Myths, was in front of a standing-room-only audience of over 250 people and provoked enough questions and comments afterwards that spawned a scrum of hand-shakers and info-seekers even after the official end to the question and answer session.

Related: Trucking Industry Gets a Glimpse of its Automated Future at CES 2017

7 Responses

  1. Gregory Boyd

    I’ve done my job for 19 years and 2,000,000 safe miles. I am sorry to keep reading these stories about how glad people are that I will be put out of work. I am a bit curious why the joy at making yet more people unemployed.

    • Walter

      I highly doubt that in 5 years the government ‘s of Canada ,USA and Mexico will have regulations in place to start the autonomous truck industry for long haul trucking …….they can’t even agree on HOS rules or Elog rules……who’ gonna strap and chain down and tarp my load and check it throughout the trip …….mmmmmm the driver on board ,that’s who , stop worrying about something that’s decades away from being implemented.

    • Matthew Frost

      It’s not going to put you out of your job. It’s supposed to make your job easier. They cant yet run in bad weather or really go through cities very well so some one will have to be in the truck all the way through the trip.

  2. Robert Ball

    I drive a truck now with lane/ braking mitagation it frequently gets it wrong and with trucks becoming less reliable what happens when it breaks down on a motorway or a busy junction or even worse on a blind bend just sitting there potentially with no warning and no one to Don high visibility clothing and warn approaching traffic?

  3. Mike

    Will it detect 1: wrong way driver 2: drunk driver 3: motorcyclist ahead 4: fatigued driver not staying in lane 5: animals 6: vechicles running stop signs or traffic lights 7: dot pulling it over for inspection/ticket 8: will it safely pull over when it has a maintenance issue (flat tire,blown tire, engine, transmission, etc) 9: icy canyon that hasn’t thawed out 10: stop when chain law is in effect? These are just a few of the questions I have much less all the other incounters I have run into over my 33yrs of over the road driving! I believe its still more than 5yrs before this happens and they still have to worry about the person that stays with the so called automated truck ( what do his hours of service look like?) Glad I’m retired! Good day!

  4. Jz

    im young and im against these autonomous trucks. Really sad to read such stories.. Wanna go back now 50 years to 1960’s…

  5. Kevin

    Will it be able to stand listening to the ding,ding, ding sound of the fasten seat belt warning bell? I didn’t think so!! 🙊


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